The US Trade War Is Breeding Misinformation

Over 90 per cent of Canadians agree that trade is important to the economy. Yet less than half can accurately identify how much our gross domestic product actually depends on it, according to an Ipsos poll. That knowledge gap doesn’t mean Canadians are uninformed; it shows how technical and complex trade really is. And complexity is fertile ground for distortion.

As is often the case when a topic becomes front and centre in the political conversation, waves of inaccurate and manipulated information have quickly followed.

Sources of trade-related misinformation can be found on both sides of the border. Some of the misleading claims made come directly from Trump himself. For example, in a March post on Truth Social, he claimed that Canada is “one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world,” citing over 250 per cent tariffs on dairy products as well as “more than 200 Billion Dollars” in U.S. subsidies made to Canada annually. The claim was widely circulated on various social media platforms and repeatedly reported by news media in both Canada and the United States.

This is a case of partial information manipulated into a misleading narrative. The 250 per cent dairy figure can technically be applied — but only once imports exceed strict quota limits. Those are thresholds U.S. exporters almost never reach, according to the International Dairy Foods Association. The “highest tariffing nation” claim also ignores that Canada keeps most of its economy open to trade, with dairy being a rare exception. As for the $200 billion in subsidies, economists and fact checkers have debunked the figure. They noted that the statement conflates deficit and defence spending with actual subsidies.

Canadian politicians have also made exaggerated claims. In March, in support of retaliatory tariffs, Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to make Trump “feel the pain of the American people” and that “we buy as many cars off the U.S. as we sell down there.” His statements projected toughness and suggested Canada had equal leverage in the dispute.

But the claim oversimplifies a far more uneven reality. In 2024, Canada actually exported more light vehicles to the United States than it imported, with a surplus of about $8 billion. However, looking at all auto parts and other forms of vehicles, Canada is a net importer, according to Statistics Canada.

The trade dispute has also been exploited by scammers who use false or fabricated information for financial gains. In the spring, a disinformation campaign circulated on social media, claiming that Prime Minister Mark Carney had devised a “cryptocurrency solution” to address U.S. tariffs. Posts shared deepfake interview footage with prominent journalists like Rosemary Barton and pushed scam crypto assets based on false claims. This form of information manipulation not only misleads ordinary people — it also undermines confidence in news media and Canadian politicians.

Canadians are particularly vulnerable to information manipulation about trade, because our information space is filled with news and social media content from the south. According to a recent Reuters report, Canadians consume an unusually high amount of U.S. content compared with other countries. That means U.S. political narratives, especially those that frame Canada through the culture-war lens, flow easily into our social media feeds and shape our understanding of the dispute here.

At the same time, social media platform design further fuels the potential of misinformation. Platforms like X and TikTok often reward heat over context, with 20-second videos and short quote-tweets dominating the dialogue. Trade disputes, by contrast, need detailed charts, timelines and nuance, all of which are not prioritized in the current digital environment.

Highlighting one economic measure and ignoring the others can lead to a completely different conclusion.

This dynamic has been playing out in conversations about the U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, which currently stands at 35 per cent. At first glance, these tariffs can appear substantial and devastating. Opposition voices, both from politicians and from social media accounts, often use this number to attack Prime Minister Carney by highlighting that it has increased since he came to office. In fact, from this perspective, it is one of the highest tariffs faced by any country in the world.

But another number can tell a completely different story. An estimated over 80 per cent of Canada’s exports to the United States are likely exempt from this headline rate because they are shielded under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. If accounting for this, the average tariff rate actually imposed on Canadian exports stands at a much lower rate. Some estimates put the effective tariff rate in the single digits. Based on this view, as Carney highlighted recently, Canada has “the best deal” in the world.

Technically, both claims are true. However, when stripped of context and presented selectively, each leads to opposite conclusions about the state of Canada-U.S. trade relations. As political leaders seek to score political wins over the issue, they inevitably highlight perspectives that benefit them rather than showcasing nuance and neutrality.

The increasingly politicized nature of trade further erodes traditional guardrails against misinformation. With the rise of partisan media and social media echo chambers, many citizens receive narratives from only one side of the partisan spectrum. On this issue, they risk ending up with a selective and one-sided understanding of the rapidly evolving state of affairs.

So what can be done? Government leaders need to take responsibility for presenting a fuller and more accurate picture of trade, not one reduced to slogans or selective statistics. Media, especially public broadcasters like CBC, must act as a trusted bridge between experts and the public, translating technical details into clear and balanced reporting.

The rest is up to us. Canadians can help blunt the impact of trade misinformation by pausing before sharing dramatic claims, asking whether numbers are stripped of context, and checking the source. Trade will always be complex, but that complexity must not become an excuse for distortion. With caution and critical thinking, we can ensure the debate reflects reality rather than rhetoric.

Diya Jiang is a senior researcher at the Media Ecosystem Observatory. She specializes in the politics of international trade, protectionism and U.S.-Canada economic relations.

[Top photo: Prime Minister Mark Carney tours the DP World Centerm container terminal in Vancouver, during a period of intense trade threats from US President Donald Trump. Photo by Darryl Dyck, the Canadian Press.]